Who will win the Democratic Party nomination for the US presidential election?

The betting market has HRC as the 4-to-1 favorite over Bernie, good but down from a 9-to-1 favorite on January 1[1]. So what gives? I suspect the market is a being distorted a little by folks looking back to Bernie’s (somewhat surprising) showing in Iowa and his (very predictable) trouncing of HRC in New Hampshire. But let’s instead look forward to the polls in the remaining primary states through June. Clinton is leading by substantial margins in Nevada, South Carolina, Michigan, Florida, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and California[2]. Only in Wisconsin is Bernie close to HRC. Sure, a lot could change. But right now, HRC remains the prohibitive favorite:

  • 87% Hillary Clinton
  • 0% Martin O’Malley
  • 13% Bernie Sanders

[1] http://predictwise.com/politics/2016-president-democratic-nomination
[2] http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/florida-democratic/


Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )


Connecting to %s