Who will win the Democratic Party nomination for the US presidential election?

The betting market has HRC as the 4-to-1 favorite over Bernie, good but down from a 9-to-1 favorite on January 1[1]. So what gives? I suspect the market is a being distorted a little by folks looking back to Bernie’s (somewhat surprising) showing in Iowa and his (very predictable) trouncing of HRC in New Hampshire. But let’s instead look forward to the polls in the remaining primary states through June. Clinton is leading by substantial margins in Nevada, South Carolina, Michigan, Florida, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and California[2]. Only in Wisconsin is Bernie close to HRC. Sure, a lot could change. But right now, HRC remains the prohibitive favorite:

  • 87% Hillary Clinton
  • 0% Martin O’Malley
  • 13% Bernie Sanders

[1] http://predictwise.com/politics/2016-president-democratic-nomination
[2] http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/florida-democratic/

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