Who will win the Republican Party nomination for the US presidential election?

Rubio is plummeting in the betting market – based, I assume, on his recent gaffs and, more importantly, on his 5th place showing in the New Hampshire primary[1]. But the market has Rubio down to 20%[2]. Given the limited number of options for Republican voters, that seems too bearish. And I’m more bearish (39%) than the market (43%) on Trump. He’s still not shown he can push past his apparent ceiling (i.e., about 1/3 of the Republican primary voters of a given state). If (if!) the anti-Trump vote can coalesce around a single candidate who’s not named Cruz, then Trump’s future is somewhat uncertain. As long as I’m finding fault…the market seems to be undervaluing Kasich (who’s not even a named option on this poll!) and Cruz, who managed to come in 2nd and 3rd in NH. Kasich looks like exactly the sort of candidate the Republicans usually settle for, and that has to count for a little, even in a rather chaotic election cycle like this one. Finally, Cruz outperformed expectations in both Iowa and New Hampshire, suggesting that his vaunted organization is getting him a few extra points.

  • 11% Jeb Bush
  • 19% Ted Cruz
  • 23% Marco Rubio
  • 39% Donald Trump
  • 8% John Kasich

[1] http://www.cnn.com/election/primaries/states/nh
[2] http://predictwise.com/politics/2016-president-republican-nomination

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