Who will win Uganda’s next presidential election? (update)

AllAfrica has an interesting perspective: “If the widespread assumption that the Museveni state machinery is going to rig the elections is true, then the hectic campaigns by the Museveni team do not indicate that.”[1] The idea seems to be this: If Museveni was simply going to rig the election, then he wouldn’t need to bother with large scale campaigning. And he is bothering. So he isn’t going to rig the election.

It’s a nice thought, but I’m not convinced. As I’m sure Museveni knows, there are limits to his power. There is an upper bound on how much he can tamper with the election, and he has appearances to keep up. Those two facts, I think, explain the frantic pace of Museveni’s campaigning (try following the guy on Twitter!), not an inability to monkey with the results. Still, Besigye is doing better than almost anyone expected, and if (though it’s a big if) he can force Museveni into a runoff, then Besigye has a real chance to unseat Museveni since Besigye would be likely to pick up the support of Mbabazi and others.

Current forecast:

  • 92% Yoweri Museveni
  • 2% Amama Mbabazi
  • 6% Kizza Besigye

[1] http://allafrica.com/stories/201602081391.html

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