Who will win the Republican Party nomination for the US presidential election? (update)

John Kasich did very well in the New Hampshire primary, but I now think that this fact has less predictive value for the Republican nomination than I did a few days ago. The betting market is very bearish on Kasich in the upcoming primaries in South Carolina and Nevada[1], and his probability of winning South Carolina is (currently) a mere 3%[2]. Why was I overestimating his chances? Many political commentators who share my own left-leaning orientation seem to like Kasich more than his rivals[3], and I probably spent a little too much time listening to them.

  • 12% Jeb Bush
  • 20% Ted Cruz
  • 24% Marco Rubio
  • 40% Donald Trump
  • 4% John Kasich

[1] http://predictwise.com/politics/2016-president-primaries
[2] http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/south-carolina-republican/
[3] http://www.vox.com/2015/7/21/9009737/john-kasich-2016

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