How many Eritrean citizens will apply for asylum in Europe for the first time in the first quarter of 2016? (update)

Some interesting developments out of Addis Ababa this morning: “Some Eritrean refugees in Ethiopia say the government’s “out of camp policy”, which relaxed restrictions on Eritrean refugees has encouraged them against taking the desperate and dangerous sea crossings to Europe.”[1, my emphasis] I’m downgrading slightly the probability that the number of Eritrean asylum seekers will be 10,000 or higher. And, for Pete’s sake, let’s hope the situation improves for the Eritreans.

  • 90% Less than 10,000
  • 8% Between 10,000 and 15,000, inclusive
  • 2% More than 15,000




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