Who will win the Democratic Party nomination for the US presidential election? (update)

There is a very interesting piece out today about Bernie’s improved chances in Nevada[1]. But I’m hesitant to change my current forecast on the basis of it. I’ve already noted that Bernie and HRC are more-or-less in a dead heat in Nevada[2], but HRC remains dominant elsewhere, e.g., in South Carolina[3]. So I’ll stand pat for now.

  • 84% Hillary Clinton
  • 16% Bernie Sanders
 Update: I probably should have noted that the vox.com piece is primarily an interview with one of Bernie’s staffers, Joan Kato. So the piece’s unremittingly sunny take on Bernie’s chances is likely to be more noise than signal.

[1] http://www.vox.com/2016/2/15/11004252/bernie-sanders-nevada
[2] http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/nevada-democratic/
[3] http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/south-carolina-democratic/

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