Who will win Uganda’s next presidential election? (update)

It’s a little startling to see that the GJ consensus forecasts are now showing up in the very news sources I use to make forecasts[1]! There’s a danger here, of course. Recall Wittgenstein’s aside, “As if someone were to buy several copies of the morning newspaper to assure himself that what it said was true”[2]. But I’m pretty sure that we’re not in much jeopardy yet.

At any rate, what passes for data in this election still strongly favors Museveni, including a poll in which Museveni leads Besigye 53% to 28% (+/- 2.2%)[3]. And the reports of bribery and intimidation on the part of Museveni’s supporters continue to pour in[4]. Bad news for democracy and Uganda, but good news for Museveni. The most recent arrest of Besigye[5] is not surprising, really, and further suggests that Museveni can do more-or-less as he likes without fearing backlash at the ballot box. Perhaps he’s miscalculated, but I don’t see any clear evidence of this.

  • 95% Yoweri Museveni
  • 1% Amama Mbabazi
  • 4% Kizza Besigye

[1] http://www.ibtimes.com/uganda-presidential-election-2016-guide-candidates-key-issues-rules-results-2306250

[2] “Philosophical Investigations,” I §265 (Elizabeth Anscombe’s translation)

[3] http://mobile.monitor.co.ug/specialreports/elections/New-poll-gives-Museveni-53-per-cent/-/2471424/3073146/-/format/xhtml/-/xw87jj/-/index.html

[4] http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/uganda-election-ruling-party-accused-bribery-intimidation-terrorisation-ahead-vote-1544398

[5] http://nanonews.org/kizza-besigye-arrested-two-days-to-poll/

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