It’s a little startling to see that the GJ consensus forecasts are now showing up in the very news sources I use to make forecasts! There’s a danger here, of course. Recall Wittgenstein’s aside, “As if someone were to buy several copies of the morning newspaper to assure himself that what it said was true”. But I’m pretty sure that we’re not in much jeopardy yet.
At any rate, what passes for data in this election still strongly favors Museveni, including a poll in which Museveni leads Besigye 53% to 28% (+/- 2.2%). And the reports of bribery and intimidation on the part of Museveni’s supporters continue to pour in. Bad news for democracy and Uganda, but good news for Museveni. The most recent arrest of Besigye is not surprising, really, and further suggests that Museveni can do more-or-less as he likes without fearing backlash at the ballot box. Perhaps he’s miscalculated, but I don’t see any clear evidence of this.
- 95% Yoweri Museveni
- 1% Amama Mbabazi
- 4% Kizza Besigye
 “Philosophical Investigations,” I §265 (Elizabeth Anscombe’s translation)