Who will win the Republican Party nomination for the US presidential election? (update)

I’m downgrading Bush and Cruz and upgrading Trump and Rubio a bit on the basis of their performances at PredictWise[1] and Pollster[2]. However, Pollster still seems to be underrating Rubio and overrating Kasich given the recent establishment backing that Rubio seems to be gathering[3]. Cruz’s also looks to be somewhat overrated by both PredictWise and Pollster, given his so-called math problem: “The states that are his most natural fits — those with the highest proportions of evangelical voters — are also the least likely to award their delegates on a winner-take-all basis. In other words, Cruz’s votes may not translate into delegates nearly as efficiently as his rivals’”[4].

  • 8% Jeb Bush
  • 17% Ted Cruz
  • 29% Marco Rubio
  • 43% Donald Trump
  • 3% John Kasich

[1] http://predictwise.com/
[2] http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-national-gop-primary
[3] http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-party-is-deciding-on-rubio/
[4] http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/ted-cruz-has-a-huge-math-problem/

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