Will Moody’s downgrade South Africa’s government issuer rating to B or below before 1 April 2016? (update)

I’m sticking with my original forecast (1%) because a 4 grade drop seems so unlikely, but the probability of a significant drop does seem considerable.

Money is pouring out at a record pace as inflows dwindle. The rand has plunged and unemployment is the highest among almost 40 developing nations tracked by Bloomberg. Drought is driving up food costs. Hanging in the balance is the investment-grade credit rating South Africa sweated to achieve in 2000, shortly after Mandela left office.[1]

Tough times.

[1] http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-02-21/tipping-point-looms-for-south-africa-as-economy-s-despair-grows

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