Perhaps the first question to ask is where the candidates currently stand. If I understand things correctly, Iowa went 23 to 21 for HRC, New Hampshire went 15 to 9 for Bernie[2], and Nevada went 19 to 15 for HRC[3]

- HRC has 23 + 9 + 19 = 51
- Bernie has 21 + 15 + 15 = 51

Actually, I was a little surprised by that result, but it does make things easier moving forward since we can just ignore the *status quo ante *and go through the individual states.

Okay, here’s where it get tedious, and I’m not positive I’ve got the details right about delegate counts. But here goes.

- HRC is the overwhelming favorite in South Carolina[4], and she’s currently forecasted to take the state with 33 delegates to Bernie’s 23[5].
- Arkansas has 32 soft-pledged delegates[6], and FiveThirtyEight projects HRC to win the state 64.7% to 31.4%[7]. So I’ll estimate that she’ll take 21 delegates and that Bernie will take the remaining 10. (From here on, the percentages refer to the expected percentage of votes who will vote for a candidate. Hence, “64.7%” denotes the 64.7% of Arkansas voters who are expected to vote for HRC. “64.7%” does not denote the likelihood that HRC will win the state.)
- Georgia has 102 soft-pledged delegates[8], and FiveThirtyEight projects HRC to win the state 76.9% to 19.8%[9]. So I’ll estimate that she’ll take 78 delegates and that Bernie will take the remaining 20.
- Massachusetts has 91 soft-pledged delegates[10], and FiveThirtyEight projects HRC to win the state 49.4% to 47.4%[11]. So I’ll estimate that she’ll take 46 delegates and that Bernie will take the remaining 45.
- Oklahoma has 38 soft-pledged delegates[12], and FiveThirtyEight projects HRC to win the state 52.5% to 43.9%[13]. So I’ll estimate that she’ll take 20 delegates and that Bernie will take the remaining 18.
- Tennessee has 67 soft-pledged delegates[14], and FiveThirtyEight projects HRC to win the state 65.4% to 31.4%[15]. So I’ll estimate that she’ll take 44 delegates and that Bernie will take the remaining 21.
- Texas has 222 soft-pledged delegates[16], and FiveThirtyEight projects HRC to win the state 62.1% to 35.3%[17]. So I’ll estimate that she’ll take 138 delegates and that Bernie will take the remaining 78.
- Texas has 222 soft-pledged delegates[16], and FiveThirtyEight projects HRC to win the state 62.1% to 35.3%[17]. So I’ll estimate that she’ll take 138 delegates and that Bernie will take the remaining 78.
- Vermont has 16 soft-pledged delegates[18], and FiveThirtyEight projects Bernie to win the state 86.4% to 11.3%[19]. So I’ll estimate that he’ll take 14 delegates and that HRC will take the remaining 2.
- Virginia has 95 soft-pledged delegates[20], and FiveThirtyEight projects HRC to win the state 62.4% to 34.5%[21]. So I’ll estimate that she’ll take 59 delegates and that HRC will take the remaining 33.

So my current forecast is that HRC will get 492 delegates (51+ 33 + 21 + 78 + 46 + 20 + 44 + 138 + 2 + 59) and that Bernie will get 333 (51 + 23 + 10 + 20 + 45 + 18 + 21 + 78 + 14 + 33). In other words, HRC will get 59.6% of the delegates, while Bernie will get 40.3% of them. How likely is it that Bernie can overcome a 19% point gap in the polls? Not likely at all. I’d put that, somewhat conservatively at 9%. Being more specific would require a lot more analysis than I am willing (or able) to do. So with a 91% likelihood, HRC will have more votes than Bernie after Super Tuesday.

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[1] http://www.cnn.com/election/primaries/states/ia/Dem

[2] http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/NH-D

[3] http://www.cnn.com/election/primaries/states/nv/Dem

[4] http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/south-carolina-democratic/

[5] http://www.bustle.com/articles/141830-is-the-south-carolina-primary-winner-take-all-theres-a-lot-at-stake-in-the-palmetto

[6] http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/AR-D

[7] http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/arkansas-democratic/

[8] http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/GA-D

[9] http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/georgia-democratic/

[10] http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/MA-D

[11] http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/massachusetts-democratic/

[12] http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/OK-D

[13] http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/oklahoma-democratic/

[14] http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/TN-D

[15] http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/tennessee-democratic/

[16] http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/TX-D

[17] http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/texas-democratic/

[18] http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/VT-D

[19] http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/vermont-democratic/

[20] http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/VA-D

[21] http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/virginia-democratic/