Will Moody’s downgrade South Africa’s government issuer rating to B or below before 1 April 2016? (update)

No change in my forecast but it’s worth noting that South Africa _does_ seem to be following through on its promises to do everything is can to prevent a significant downgrade from the ratings agencies[1]. When does it become safe to say that there’s a zero percent likelihood that Moody’s will drop South Africa a full 4 grades?

[1] http://www.reuters.com/article/safrica-budget-idUSL8N16331Z

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