How many Eritrean citizens will apply for asylum in Europe for the first time in the first quarter of 2016? (update)

I’m just slightly modifying my forecast on word that “Eritrea is not prepared to stop forcing its youth into lengthy stretches of work as soldiers and civil servants, a conscription policy that is driving waves of refugees to make the perilous trip across the Sahara desert and Mediterranean Sea to Europe”[1]. @cdob63 and others mention that this article reports that “Each month as many as 5,000 people flee Eritrea according to U.N. figures.” Good find, but the number of Eritrean migrants who try to come to Europe varies seasonally (probably because of difficulties crossing the Mediterranean during poor weather and in less than fully sea-worthy vessels), and last year it was at its lowest during Q1. So I think the number is much more likely to be south of 10,000.

  • 94% Less than 10,000
  • 5% Between 10,000 and 15,000, inclusive
  • 1% More than 15,000

[1] http://www.reuters.com/article/us-eritrea-politics-insight-idUSKCN0VY0M5

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