Will the Republican candidate for president win the party’s nomination on the first ballot, at the party’s convention in July? (update)

Rubio is talking up (somewhat indirectly) the possibility of a contested convention[1], but it sounds more like panic in the face of Trump’s recent successes than something that is probable on its merits alone. I think we’re likely to have a clearer picture of the playing field on Wednesday, though I think it’s highly likely that Trump will walk away with the lion’s share of the delegates. For now I’m bullish on a first ballot candidate: 85%.



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