Will the Republican candidate for president win the party’s nomination on the first ballot, at the party’s convention in July? (update)

Trump’s performance on Super Tuesday was less dominant than I expected, and it leaves the door open for a (still unlikely but certainly not impossible) contested convention. Here’s one take on how it might go:

Winning a majority of delegates doesn’t seem to be something [the Marco Rubio campaign] expects to do, especially after another ho-hum night on Super Tuesday. The goal now is to deny Trump from reaching an outright majority of delegates and then oust him after the first ballot at the convention. This isn’t just the backup plan anymore; it is the plan. This means that it might be better for all of the non–Donald Trump candidates to stay in the race and pick off potential wins from Trump here and there.[1]

Maybe. Like the author of this piece, I have my doubts about whether Rubio (and his establishment enablers – whoever they are) can pull this off. But the question is about whether Trump (or anyone else0 will win on a first ballot, and here we have some reason to think that even if Trump gets a plurality of delegates (as now seems probable), the convention might be a messier affair than usual: 81% chance the Republican candidate for president win the party’s nomination on the first ballot, at the party’s convention in July.

[1]http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/politics/2016/03/rubio_cruz_and_kasich_will_all_stay_in_the_gop_race_why.html

 

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