Which Republican presidential candidate will win the Ohio primary on 15 March?

I’m taking FiveThirtyEight’s polls-plus[1] as my initial prior, but I note that its polls-only data[2] suggests Trump has a 52% chance of victory while Kasich is far behind at 35% (Cruz and Rubio swap places, with Rubio down to a 3% chance of victory). When I have a chance, I’ll want to go back and see whether the polls-plus or polls-only data has had more predictive value for Trump’s performance in the other primaries. I also note that Kasich is likely to have a ground game here entirely unlike that in other state, since – of course – he holds high office here. That’s got to count for something, but I’m not yet sure how to take that on quantitively.


[1] http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/ohio-republican/
[2] http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/ohio-republican/#polls-only

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