There’s a little more reason to be bullish about Montenegro joining NATO during the Warsaw Summit this summer: “Last week the German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMFUS) hosted three major NATO ambassadors for a panel on what the usually biannual NATO Summit in July is hoping to achieve. The discussion focused mostly on what NATO’s response to Russian aggression in both Europe and the Middle East should look like. ‘The Summit has to prove that the open door policy is the very center of the Alliance’s policy. The Enlargement of NATO is serving stability in Europe, so it must continue,’ said Poland’s Ambassador to NATO, Jacek Najder. This just two weeks after Montenegro started accession talks with NATO, which could end in full membership by the end of the Warsaw Summit”. The nice folks over at NATO are also making happy noises about Montenegro’s joining the club: “[T]he Chairman [of NATO’s military command] expressed NATO’s commitment to continue its support to Montenegro and valued the constructive role that the country plays in the region, and through its contributions to NATO, EU, and UN missions, to international security”. I don’t think one should get *too* excited about this, but it does sound like things are proceeding a pace. That’s probably with a slight (from 46% to 47%) increase in the likelihood that Montenegro will joint NATO by the end of 2016.