Which Republican presidential candidate will win the Florida primary on 15 March? (update)

I’m modifying my earlier forecast to reflect recent changes in polling data[1].

  • 1% Ted Cruz
  • 26% Marco Rubio
  • 73% Donald Trump

But I’ll also need to make further modifications to the forecast in order to take into consideration some of what’s going on in terms of negative advertising and ground-game related tomfoolery. And I’ll have time to do that when, exactly?

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