Which Republican presidential candidate will win the Ohio primary on 15 March? (update)

This is a tentative modification of my forecast and will require further modification sooner rather than later. According to FiveThirtyEight, Rubio and Cruz have fallen well off the pace in the most recent polls, but Kasich remains farther ahead than I would have expected[1]. Pollster tells a different tale with Trump ahead of Kasich. A better understanding of the particulars on the ground in Ohio would help, but I’m not quite there yet.

  • 1% Ted Cruz
  • 54% John Kasich
  • 1% Marco Rubio
  • 44% Donald Trump

[1] http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/ohio-republican/

[2] http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-ohio-republican-presidential-primary

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