Who will win the Democratic Party nomination for the US presidential election? (update)

Michigan was certainly a surprise to pollsters[1] and to me, and some sources are making quite a big deal of Bernie’s win there[2]. But HRC remains 13% above the pace that she needs to reach the majority of the pledged delegates[3], and the lack of winner-take-all contests makes sudden changes in the standings less likely. So I’m moving HRC up from 95% to 96%.

[1]http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2016/03/08/sanders_is_surprise_victor_in_michigan_129919.html

[2]https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/03/08/the-two-big-warning-signs-for-hillary-clinton-in-michigan/

[3] http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/delegate-targets/democrats/

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