Will Moody’s downgrade South Africa’s government issuer rating to B or below before 1 April 2016? (update)

“Moody’s Investors Service has placed South Africa’s Baa2 bond and issuer ratings on review for downgrade”[1] according to multiple sources[2][3]. But no one is talking about downgrading South Africa multiple levels. So I’ll stick with a 1% chance of this happening, though I think the correct number is some fraction of 1.

[1] http://allafrica.com/stories/201603090325.html

[2] http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-03-09/south-africa-s-gordhan-seeks-to-appease-investors-on-economy

[3] http://af.reuters.com/article/investingNews/idAFKCN0WB0U5

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