Will the Republican candidate for president win the party’s nomination on the first ballot, at the party’s convention in July? (update)

Trump has been steadily slipping from the pace that he needs to win 1,237 delegates, but he’s still 6% ahead of that pace[1], so only a slight modification of my forecast here (from 81% to 80%). A bigger modification seems possible after the three winner-take-all state primaries on March 15.

[1] http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/delegate-targets/

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