Which Republican presidential candidate will win the Florida primary on 15 March? (update)

Rubio is cratering in the most recent polls[1][2][3]. And Cruz has never seemed to have been a player in this state. I’m not aware of any recent poll that suggests he’ll get more than 19% of the primary votes (which is *not* to say he has a 19% chance of winning). Polls aren’t everything; that for sure. But it’s hard not to see this contest as being overwhelmingly likely (6-to-1) to go to Trump, with Rubio as a long shot and Cruz as almost – but not quite – an impossibility.





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