Which Republican presidential candidate will win the Ohio primary on 15 March? (update)

It feels like a bit of a mug’s game, trying to forecast this one. Kasich has closed with Trump in the polls in the last few days[1], and he (Kasich) has been a rather popular governor in this state[2]. Rubio’s endorsement (if that’s the word I’m looking for) might help Kasich a bit too[3]. The party establishment seems to be making more than a nominal effort on Kasich’s behalf[4], though – honestly – that’s not proved to be of much value so far. However, a new PAC-based anti-Trump add running in Ohio right now does look like it might have some impact[5]. If Trump has anything (other than consistently good polling numbers!) in his favor, it’s the possibility of crossover Democrats voting for him[6]. We probably won’t have much of a sense of whether they’ll make an impact (or even materialize) until the exit poll data starts rolling in.

  • 1% Ted Cruz
  • 57% John Kasich
  • 0% Marco Rubio
  • 42% Donald Trump

[1] http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/ohio-republican/#polls-only
[2] http://www.politico.com/story/2015/10/poll-john-kasich-ohio-approval-numbers-214549
[3] http://www.npr.org/2016/03/11/470094630/rubio-campaign-vote-for-kasich-in-ohio-to-stop-trump
[4] http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2016-03-09/the-party-goes-to-bat-for-kasich-in-ohio
[5] http://www.cnn.com/2016/03/10/politics/donald-trump-ohio-trade-pac/
[6] http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-trump-ohio-insight-idUSMTZSAPEC3ATLGUM9

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