Which Republican presidential candidate will win the Florida primary on 15 March? (update)

The current polls strongly favor Trump[a], though I think they might understate Rubio’s chances of winning slightly. Why? Because of the latter’s connection with many communities in Florida (e.g., Cuban-Americans are said to favor Rubio over Trump 57-to-13[b]). And because Floridians voted Rubio into the Senate for Pete’s sake! And because Rubio might have ground-game resources that pollsters aren’t well positioned to estimate[c]. But I just can’t see how Cruz and Kasich are to be taken seriously at this point. There are some reports that Cruz has given up on Florida[d]. Sure, the probability of either winning isn’t really zero, but it’s so close that we might as well treat it that way. Hey, it’s 2016. Nothing unexpected happens in American politics anymore, right?

  • 19% Marco Rubio
  • 81% Donald Trump

[a] http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/florida-republican/

[b] http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2016/03/11/five-things-know-florida-primary/81640612/

[c] http://www.npr.org/2016/03/12/470148505/the-complicated-battle-for-florida-who-really-has-home-court-advantage.

[d] http://www.redstate.com/streiff/2016/03/11/ted-cruz-abandoning-florida-marco-rubio/

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