Which Republican presidential candidate will win the Ohio primary on 15 March? (update)

Just an adjustment to my last forecast in light of new polling data that suggests Kasich is beginning to put some distance between himself and Trump[a]. Given that Trump has been known to under-perform his polling numbers[b][c], especially in closed primaries[d], I think that Kasich is now about a 2-to-1 favorite.

  • 67% John Kasich
  • 33% Donald Trump

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