From (the wonderfully named) Sputnik News: “‘Judging by experience of other countries this process [ratification] takes about a year. So, we can really expect that Montenegro will become a fully-fledged NATO member by the middle of 2017,’ [Prime Minister Milo] Djukanovic said in an interview with Dozhd TV channel”[a]. There’s another source on this, but it appears to be cribbing directly from the original piece inSputnik News[b]. I take this seriously, though the context of the statements by Djukanovic is the attempt to calm down Russia over NATO expansion, so the PM might be overestimating the amount of time involved. It will be worth keeping an eye on this story as (of if) it develops. For now, I’m dropping the probability that Montenegro will join NATO during 2016 to 42%.