This is a case of the dog that didn’t bark in the night. I’m lowering my forecast of the probability that Montenegro will join NATO in 2016 to 30% because no one has (yet!) walked back Prime Minister Djukanovic’s remarks about a mid-2017 entry date for Montenegro[a]. That said, I remain somewhat skeptical about the probative value of Djukanovic’s statement since Russia is super-not-okay[b] about Montenegro’s becoming a western imperial running dog[c], and Djukanovic might just be trying to calm the Kremlin. We’ll see.