Will Montenegro become a NATO member in 2016? (update)

This is a case of the dog that didn’t bark in the night. I’m lowering my forecast of the probability that Montenegro will join NATO in 2016 to 30% because no one has (yet!) walked back Prime Minister Djukanovic’s remarks about a mid-2017 entry date for Montenegro[a]. That said, I remain somewhat skeptical about the probative value of Djukanovic’s statement since Russia is super-not-okay[b] about Montenegro’s becoming a western imperial running dog[c], and Djukanovic might just be trying to calm the Kremlin. We’ll see.

[a] http://www.b92.net/eng/news/region.php?yyyy=2016&mm=03&dd=17&nav_id=97404

[b] http://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2015/12/02/458140709/russia-bristles-as-nato-invites-montenegro-to-join-military-alliance

[c] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Running_dog

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