Will more than 1 million refugees and migrants arrive in Europe by sea in 2016? (update)

Just a small update to my last forecast. There are some initial reports that the flow of refugees and migrants to the Ionian islands is falling fast:

[A]t least here on Lesbos, 48 hours after the deal went into effect, the number of refugees landing seemed to be slowing, though the figures were still being tabulated. Sunday brought more than 1,500 new refugees to the Greek isles, but early tallies suggested that the figure might have dropped to just a few hundred on Monday.”[a]

The awful events in Brussels yesterday are likely to lend a greater sense of urgency to reducing the number of refugees and migrants into Europe[b], however tenuous the connection between refugees and terrorism is[c]. The long-term consequences for Europe are not likely to be pretty[d], but there you are. The probability of over 1 million refugees and migrants arriving in Europe by sea during 2016 is now 0.58.

[a] http://www.nytimes.com/2016/03/22/world/europe/deal-appears-to-curb-migrant-flow-but-greece-still-faces-uphill-effort.html

[b] http://time.com/4268072/brussels-attack-refugees-greece/

[c] http://www.vox.com/2016/3/22/11285962/brussels-attack-refugees-immigration

[d] http://www.businessinsider.com/unhcr-children-refugees-wont-forget-how-europe-rejected-them-2016-3?r=UK&IR=T

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