Who will win the Republican Party nomination for the US presidential election? (update)

Another minor update. I think Mr. Trump’s chances of winning on the first ballot have improved from 63% to 70%[a]. So that fact requires a modification to the probability distribution in my last forecast[b]. The new one looks something like this:

  • Mr. Trump: 71.5% (=70%+(%5*30%))
  • Sen. Cruz: 23.75% (=[30%*75%]+[5%*30%])
  • None of the above: 4.75% (=30%*15%)

After I ran the numbers, I peeked at the betting market’s current spread, which looks like this:

  • Mr. Trump: 79.37%
  • Sen. Cruz: 17.86%
  • Gov. Kasich: 2.78%

There are also some long-shot odds to be had on Speaker Ryan, Gov. Romney, and Sen Rubio. And – what the hell? – you can also bet on Mayor Bloomberg, Gov. Haley, and even Jeb! himself[c]. I’m not sure whether it’s a good thing or a bad thing that my own numbers aren’t too far from the house’s, but it certainly is a thing.

[a] https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/219126

[b] https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/216010

[c] https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/#/politics/market/1.107664938

 

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