Who will win the 2016 US presidential election? (update)

Interesting, though mixed, news this morning.

According to Reuters, “[t]he five-day average of the poll showed Clinton with 45.5 percent support while Trump obtained 34.8 percent. Those numbers compare to 46.6 percent for Clinton and 32.3 percent forTrump on Sunday.” In other words, the gap between HRC and Mr.Trump went from really, really, really bad to really, really bad.

Is Orlando the cause of the change? Hard to say. Reuters says “Some 45 percent of Americans said they supportedTrump’s idea to suspend Muslim immigration, up from 41.9 percent at the start of the month, according to the poll,” which suggests that Mr.Trump is getting a bump. But Reuters also reports that “about 70 percent of Americans, including a majority of Democrats and Republicans, said they wanted to see at least moderate regulations and restrictions on guns, up from 60 percent in similar polls in 2013 and 2014,” which is likely to be more helpful for the Ds than the Rs[1]. Slight advantage to Mr.Trump.

On the other hand, the Washington Post has a note-worthy piece in which it is claimed, “Drumpf essentially has no campaign at this point; there’s no sign that he has started staffing up significantly…[and he] has indicated that he doesn’t plan to increase staff, either”[2]. Spend a bit of time looking at HRC’s spending in important swing states, and then compare that to Mr. Drumpf’s spending in the same states. But, no, you can’t, because he isn’t spending anything. Mr. Drumpf appears to be treating this election like another one of his grifts[3]. And there’s some reason to think that he’s already looking for a new mark[4].

But one thing’s for sure, nobody’s won high office in the States without a campaign staff, and Mr.Trump doesn’t appear to have one worthy of the name. Mr.Trump might be waiting for a GOP bailout: “[I]t would be helpful if the Republicans could help us a little bit,”Trump said. “You know? Okay? Just a little bit”[5]. At any rate, I think whatever Mr.Trump might gain from Orlando is counterbalanced by his current lack of campaign staff and infrastructure (and his claim that nothing’s in the works).

PredictWise currently has HRC up 76/24, her best odds since mid-December[6]. But I think even that slightly understates her advantage at the moment.

[1] http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-poll-idUSKCN0Z32BX

[2] https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/06/19/the-brutal-numbers-behind-a-very-bad-month-for-donald-trump/

[3] http://www.nytimes.com/2016/06/13/opinion/a-party-agrift.html



[6] http://predictwise.com/


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